Chinese New Year holiday period, cut by India and the United States recently announced 900 billion U.S. dollars economic stimulus plan boost good news, including the Dow Jones industrial average, including a series of economic data was stronger than expected, ICE speculative forces and was not inside National Day holiday last year to re-launch during the 15% rate as downstream market slump.
1 27 ICE11 March break main raw sugar No. 13 cents / lb, nearly three months of the new high-profile opening. The end of March due to a contract about 1 month remaining time delisting, liquidation of long positions speculators began, in March / May contract for months between transactions increase, which makes most of the time the contract within the two months between the premium tends to expand. However, to the January 30 deadline date, the 3-month price is still firmly abide by the 12.50 cents / lb above. Taking full account of the global economic environment, the author believes that the recent first two sugar-producing countries in the world supply is supporting this round Sugar The biggest reason.
] India October 1, 2008? In January 2009 and 25 sugar production declined between 11% of the country's top sugar-producing areas?? Maharashtra intends to import 100,000 tons of raw sugar news of view, the industry in India to publish its official output of the new crop season may be from the last crop season of 26.3 million tons to 18.8 million tons a large number of forecasts reduced the basic consensus has been reached. As to whether the import of raw sugar at zero duty import of raw sugar and after the cancellation of the corresponding amount of refined sugar to be exported while the system of choice to be the Government of India. Brazil, since the wave of economic crisis and the domestic credit crunch, the main producing areas sugar, Wine Significantly reduced sperm mobility plants, resulting in crop season shortage of funds. At present, four bankruptcies, there is proliferation of signs of deterioration later.
1. Positive relationship between internal and external disk sugar
Then the international price of sugar is stronger if the two cities will help the domestic price of sugar on the rebound from the lows before the holiday then? By analyzing the price movements of external disk, our conclusion is: since 2006, both in memory in a positive relationship between trading session. Fluctuations in both the overall trend is consistent.
Recent months from the closing price of white sugar CZCE ICE11 number and closing prices, raw sugar more recent months the figure, in most of the time with the rise of prices with the fall, except that a mixed day and time of departure from the individual. In which two relatively large deviation occurred at the June 2006? In August and July 2008? September.
Our government from January 5, 2006 October 13 to play only during the year were auctioned 12 transactions totaled 1.1433 million tons of state sugar reserve. Huge amount of sugar within a short time to market, making sugar from 6,000 yuan / tons of high speed back to August of 4000 yuan / ton. International market opened in Brazil in April, after pressing demand to ease tensions, synchronization of price correction, the dollar 6? August there have been sustained during the devaluation, so that external disk on the price of raw sugar within the disk is relatively strong in the price of sugar.
Another obvious departure in July 2008? September. By the Shijiazhuang Sanlu Group Co., infant formula milk powder produced a significant Food Security incidents affecting the country, many brands of milk powder and liquid milk were detected in three different levels of ammonia cypermethrin, making people seriously questioned Dairy products The security industry, dairy consumption and then hit hard. Sugar in food production as the largest and most sugar industry, the domestic sugar sales can be said to share a common lot. Hence there are clear differences between inside and outside the sugar price movements.
Analysis of historical price, we think the recent trend of foreign Strong Tendency help drive the domestic price to the good. Variables can not be ignored factors are present in the policy and individual emergencies. As the unpredictable nature of emergencies, we are more concerned about late or on policy-related factors, such as purchasing and storage and so on.
2. Policy factor analysis on the impact of the market outlook
Policy, our macro to micro, central to local, short-term to long-term analysis may affect the price of a few policy points.